Coldest winter since 1978?

This article was originally written for Street Roots.

Nice, warmer autumn; extreme winter:
Oregon meteorologists look to oscillating, often unpredictable, weather pattern

By Sarah Morrigan

PORTLAND, Ore., Oct. 24 – Four prominent Oregon weather experts presented their predictions for this fall and winter weathers in the annual “What Will Winter Be Like” event this morning at the Oregon Museum of Science and Industry in Southeast Portland.

Good news: The meteorologists believe that it will be warmer November and December, with below-average precipitations.

Bad news: They predict heavy snows and a very cold winter, starting late December through March.

The presenters, representing local meteorological and climatological agencies, agreed that the shifting patterns in oceanic temperatures lead to a “neutral” year with somewhat La Niña-like conditions at times. Using statistics from “analog, or surrogate, years,” in which the patterns of oceanic temperature changes, observed weathers and sunspot counts are similar to the upcoming season, they concluded that this year’s climates in Portland area will resemble those in 1955, 1974, 1985 and 1989.

“I don’t expect a constant theme, but rather a roller-coaster ride of oscillating weather,” said Pete Parsons of Oregon Department of Agriculture. “In January, it will be either extremely mild or extremely cold; it may even be like 1930, when the Columbia River froze over.” Parsons likened 2008 also to 1978, calling for a 30 to 50 percent possibility of a major arctic outbreak. It is defined as an episode of more than seven days of continuous below-freezing temperature. To dramatize this point, Parsons showed a mock tabloid front page screaming: “Coldest winter since 1978!”

Former Oregon State University meteorologist George Taylor pointed out that in December 1955 there was a major flood in Portland under a climatic pattern similar to this year. According to his analysis of Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Taylor believes that there will be a considerable cooling in global atmosphere during the coming 15 or more years. “Though urban effects are reducing snowfalls in Portland, but it’s not necessarily so in Corvallis or rural areas in this region,” said Taylor, also calling this winter a neutral one. “It’s very tough predicting La Niña or El Niño, meteorologists may as well get away with tossing a coin.”

Sidebar: Winter emergency shelters in Portland
Between Nov. 1, 2007 and March 31, 2008, the City of Portland contracted with the American Red Cross Oregon Trail Chapter to open three emergency warming centers (EWC) during extreme winter conditions. EWC were activated when it was below 35 degrees and there was snow or sleet, or over an inch of rain in a 12-hour period; or in a dry weather, when it was below 25 degrees. “City and the Chapter are still working on an agreement to cover the EWC for the coming winter, so specific details are not yet available,” according to the Red Cross. It is also reviewing the EWC activation requirements. EWC opened for 11 nights as early as Nov. 30 and until March 27.